Atlantic disturbance headed to Florida could develop by end of week (2024)

While Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in Mexico Thursday morning, forecasters also increased their confidence that a disturbance in the Atlantic could form as it heads to Florida.

The National Hurricane Center now gives the system a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next two days. The patch of disturbed weather is moving at 10 to 15 mph and is expected to reach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early Friday.

The small area of low pressure is currently moving northwest from the Bahamas and producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, according to federal meteorologists.

If the system does reach Florida, its impacts would likely be contained to the greater Jacksonville area, said Rodney Wynn, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office.

“We’re not concerned about this area at all,” he said. “If it does develop into something, that will be very weak and most likely impact the Carolinas more than it will Florida.”

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance plane is on standby to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if deemed necessary, the hurricane center says.

Meanwhile, rain chances in the Tampa Bay area were about 30% on Thursday and will dip to 20% on Friday before springing back to 50-60% over the weekend, according to Spectrum Bay News 9.

Federal meteorologists are also watching a broad area of low pressure expected to form over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America Friday. The hurricane center gives that system 50-50 odds of development over the next week.

Forecasts show the disturbance headed to where Alberto made landfall in Mexico, which could bring another round of heavy rain to the area.

Alberto weakened into a tropical depression as it moved inland over Mexico Thursday.

But forecasters said heavy rain amounting to several inches was still expected inland in Mexico’s Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon and Coahuila states. South Texas was forecast to see diminishing rain Thursday.

Immediately after it moved ashore in Tampico, there was initial disappointment at the meager amount of rain that fell. Showers had been sporadic through the early morning with the sun even breaking through at times.

“We had hoped that it would come because water is so needed here, but at far as I can tell it went somewhere else,” said Tampico resident Marta Alicia Hernández.

But inland heavy rain was causing damage in the neighboring states of Nuevo Leon and Veracruz.

There, civil protection authorities reported three deaths linked to Alberto’s rains. They said one man died in the La Silla river in the city of Monterrey, the state capital, and that two minors died from electric shocks in the municipality of Allende. Local media reported that the minors were riding a bicycle in the rain.

Water also washed out a segment of a major highway connecting Monterrey and Saltillo.

Nuevo Leon Gov. Samuel García wrote on his account on social media platform X that metro and public transportation services would be suspended in Monterrey from Wednesday night until midday Thursday when Alberto has passed.

To the south in the state of Veracruz, 24 families were left homeless in the state capital of Xalapa after days of heavy rain collapsed a retaining wall onto three buildings.

At dawn, residents heard a deafening sound and the floor began to move.

“I thought it was an earthquake,” said Pedro Luna Sánchez, who had owned an apartment in one of the buildings for 26 years. “I looked out the window and saw my neighbor calling for help. I looked more closely and saw the wall was on top of the buildings.”

All residents were able to escape safely.

Alberto had spurred tropical storm warnings covering most of the western Gulf of Mexico’s coastline from Texas to Veracruz. The storm made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.

Schools were closed across Tamaulipas state where Alberto came ashore and would be through Friday. Shelters were prepared across the state to receive residents trying to escape high water.

As much as 5 to 10 inches of rain was expected in some parts of northeast Mexico and southern Texas, with even higher isolated totals possible, according to the hurricane center. Some higher locations in Mexico could see as much as 20 inches of rain, which could result in mudslides and flash flooding, especially in the states of Tamaulipas, Coahuila and Nuevo Leon.

Alberto was bringing rains and flooding to the coast of Texas as well.

The U.S. National Weather Service said the main hazard for southern coastal Texas is flooding from excess rain. Areas along theTexascoast saw some road flooding and dangerous rip currents Wednesday, and waterspouts were spotted offshore.

But Bert Dagnon, who closed his Salt Water Gift Shop in Galveston on Wednesday out of an abundance of caution, said it didn’t rain as much as predicted and there was little impact in the area aside from flooding in low-lying areas.

“I suspect everybody will pick up, mop up and move on,” he said Thursday, adding that he’d already had customers as skies turned partly sunny at the beach.

In Surfside Beach, a Texas city on a barrier island, storm surge early Thursday left behind some damaged roads and lots of debris, but “very little damage” to the mostly elevated structures, Mayor Gregg Bisso said.

The surge was receding by late morning and “you can almost get around now,” he said. Bisso said the island has a population of about 800 full-time residents with as many as 10,000 vacationers in the summer.

Tampico resident Octavio González was visibly disappointed in the little rain from Alberto.

“Very little water fell,” he said. “We’re on this south side of Tamaulipas with a lot of drought. And the truth is we have a lot of hope for the rain.”

Material from the Associated Press supplements this report.

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